.
Before we take a look at who might be the new apostles, let's take a look of the current Q15 (First Presidency and Quorum of the Twelve Apostles combined):
Current Leadership
First Presidency
- Russell Nelson, MD, PhD
- Dallin Oaks, Esq.
- Henry Eyring PhD
Quorum of the Twelve Apostles
- Russell Ballard
- Jeffrey Holland, PhD
- Dieter Uchtdorf, MBA
- David Bednar, PhD
- Quentin Cook, Esq.
- Todd Christoferson, Esq.
- Neal Andersen, MBA
- Ronald Rasband
- Gary Stevenson
- Dale Renlund, MD
Qualities
In the past, blog posts that attempted to predict new apostles focused on the following characteristics (LINK, LINK, LINK):- Age
- Experience
- Length of Service
- Education
Past attempts at predictions have not been very successful. Let me list a few trends I've seen:
- Looking at the last 16 apostles chosen (the 16th was Russell Nelson), the average age at which they were called was 60.4 years old with a standard deviation of 4.9 years. The oldest of the last 16 apostles chosen was Wirthlin aged 69.3 and the youngest was Oaks aged 51.7.
- Position at the time of call:
- 8 of the last 16 were serving in the Presidency of the 70 at the time of their call
- 2 of the last 16 were serving as Presiding Bishop (Eyring had also previously served in the Presiding Bishopric)
- 4 of the last 16 had served as presidents of church universities (Oaks, Holland, Eyring, Bednar)
- 2 of the last 16 were not General Authorities at the time of their call (Nelson and Oaks)
- 3 of the last 16 were serving in the First Quorum of the Seventy at the time of their call (Holland, Eyring, Renlund). Note: Renlund is the only apostle (of the last 16) chosen from the First Quorum of the 70 that was not a church school president
- Education:
- We currently have the most educated First Presidency in the history of the church (2 PhDs, 1 JD, 1 MD). 2 of the last 3 apostles chosen only had bachelor degrees. I imagine both new apostles will have graduate degrees.
- 3 of the current 13 apostles are attorneys
- 4 of the current 13 apostles have PhDs
- 2 of the current 13 apostles are MDs
- 2 of the current 13 apostles have MBAs
- 3 of the current 13 apostles do not have graduate degrees
- Only 4 of the current 13 apostles served as mission presidents
- Ballard: Toronto (as a Seventy)
- Anderson: France
- Rasband: New York City
- Stevenson: Japan
- Birth Location
- 6 of the last 6 apostles were born in Utah
- 11 of the last 16 apostles were born in Utah
- 15 of the last 16 apostles were born in the USA
The Possibilities
- L. Whitney Clayton
- As the Senior President of the Presidency of the 70, he has to be on the list. That is not a guarantee though. In 2004, when two spots were available, Earl Tingey was the Senior President of the 70, about the same age as Clayton is now, and also a lawyer. He was passed over for Uchtdorf and Bednar. Clayton's direct involvement in the Church's actions with Prop 8 in California make him a somewhat controversial choice. He was able to get his younger brother, Weatherford Clayton into the 70, so may still have the the influence and power to get into the Q15. I'm sure Nelson likes that he had 7 kids.
- Gerald Causse
- He replaced Gary Stevenson as the Presiding Bishop 3 years ago. I imagine they will want to keep him in that spot for a while (David Burton served in that position for almost 2 decades). He would be a popular choice as a non-American.
- Gerrit Gong
- He made news when a presentation he gave to church headquarters was leaked by MormonLeaks. His presentation was well-received (while the audience comments were not) and he is considered a popular choice by most people. He is Oxford educated as a Rhodes Scholar and as an Asian-American would add diversity to the Quorum while still keeping it American and highly educated. He is the progressive Mormon's choice.
- Craig Christensen: MBA and former BYU football player (when BYU football was good). He has served in various capacities in Salt Lake and has mostly flown under the radar. This is the choice if they don't want to make any waves.
- Lynn Robbins: Gave the infamous talk "Which Way Do You Face?"
- Diversity choices from the Presidency of the Seventy (the Presidency of the Seventy, the first place to look for new apostles, is refreshingly diverse):
- Ulisses Soares: Brazilian. I am not expecting him, so I won't comment more.
- Gerrit Gong: See above.
- Juan Uceda: Peruvian. I doubt he is in contention, so I won't comment more.
- Patrick Kearon: English. Gave a popular talk in General Conference not too long ago. Non-American, but still white. Unlikely in my opinion though.
- Gerald Causse: See above.
- First Quorum of the Seventy
- Kim B. Clark: Former President of BYU-I, dean of the Harvard Business School. President of BYU-I when they released their masturbation video. I imagine many in Salt Lake him.
- Michael Ringwood: Russell Nelson's son-in-law. Nelson is not afraid of nepotism.
- Marcus Nash: Attorney, serving in the Africa West Presidency (where there is huge church growth)
- Larry Echo Hawk: A very long shot, but as the former Idaho Attorney General and Assistant Secretary of the Interior, he would be interesting choice. He is 69, but as a Democrat that might be in his favor (he won't make it to being Prophet)
- Non-General Authorities
- Orrin Hatch: Nope
- Mitt Romney: Nope
- Clayton Christensen: Unlikely
- Harry Reid: Nope
- Terryl Givens: Nope
- Greg Prince: Nope
- A woman: Nope
- James Hamula: A popular guess 3 years ago, a definite No now.
My guesses
- Clayton, against all my wishes, seems to be a likely choice. He is not a lock, but he seems to be a kindred spirit to Nelson (and to Nelson's puppeteer and right hand man Oaks). At the age of 68, this is likely his last chance to get chosen.
- Gong would be a counterbalancing choice to the controversial Clayton. He is well-liked by most people I talked to and would satisfy those wanting someone non-white and non-Utahn. Being optimistic, he is my first choice.
- Causse would be my non-American choice, but I think he will stay as Presiding Bishop as he has only been in the job for 2.5 years (and he is only 54 years old)
- If someone is called directly from the First Quorum of the 70 it will likely be Nash, in my opinion. If not Nash, then Clark.
Addition Question
Will the Church finally choose it's first African-American General Authority?
